Examining various price performance indicators on the Glassnode platform shows that the Bitcoin price trend in the current halving cycle is closely repeating the pattern of 2013 and 2017.
Bitcoin price trend is very similar to previous halving cycles
According to Cointelegraph, after the growth of Bitcoin price by more than 80% since the beginning of 2023 and reaching the bottom of $15,600 in November 2022 (Aban 1401), analysts in China are now investigating the role of halving next year.
The upcoming halving event will reduce the supply of Bitcoin by reducing the reward for mining each block from 6.25 Bitcoins to 3.125 Bitcoins, just like previous events.
So, while this event itself acts as a springboard to push the price to an all-time high, similar to past halvings, futures trading also increases, which in turn affects Bitcoin’s price performance.
A look at the data published by Glassnode shows similarities between the current halving cycle and previous periods. Despite the relatively weak price increase, the current bullish trend indicates that Bitcoin is at the bottom of the market.
Examining price action from its most recent historical peak also shows that this cycle is completely repeating past patterns.
At the same time, data from an Ecoinometrics report late last month provided a more in-depth look at Bitcoin’s recent price performance.
The report also confirmed that a new price peak is on the way, if the recession does not disrupt the current trend.
Bitcoin’s price action suggests a bottom has formed, but with a global recession looming, it’s too early to call it definitive. Although economic instability will increase demand for safe assets, Bitcoin still trades like a risky asset.
How much will the price increase?
With the latest bear market, the belief that the 2024 halving cycle would cause a significant price jump appears to have been misplaced.
Filbfilb, one of the founders of the trading company DecenterTrade, recently emphasized the belief that the next cycle of the price of Bitcoin will reach an all-time high of around $180,000 in 2025.
However, he noted that over time, the upward trend in the price of Bitcoin will have a tapering effect. This means that the rate of price increase will be lower than in the previous cycle.