On Wednesday and Thursday of this week, the statistics related to three key indicators, including the consumer price index, producer price index and unemployment insurance claims will be announced in the United States, each of which can have a significant impact on determining the direction of the digital currency market for the coming days.
According to CoinDesk, the annual inflation rate of the United States fell to 4% last month, and apparently since the announcement of the previous rate, inflation in this country has been decreasing. Meanwhile, it seems that the Central Bank of America intends to increase the bank interest rate again at the end of this month (July 26/August 4) after a stabilization period.
The inflation rate or consumer price index (CPI) for the month of June in the United States is scheduled to be announced tomorrow at 16:00 Tehran time. The producer price index (PPI) will be announced one day after that, on Thursday of this week.
The rate of deflation in this period could have a direct impact on the Federal Reserve’s decision to raise or not raise interest rates at the end of July, and digital currency investors are also waiting to see rates that can justify not raising interest rates for the second consecutive period.
The approach of the Central Bank of America in tightening its policies has been successful so far and has increased the inflation rate in this country from 9% in August 2022 to 4% in May of this year. Of course, recently, economic experts have expressed concern about the fact that the continuation of this trend can lead to the formation of a severe recession in the economy in the United States.
1. Consumer Price Index
The consumer price index in the US has been falling steadily since reaching its peak last year. Economic experts generally agree that the CPI of this period will probably be a little more than 3%. Edward Moya, the senior analyst of Oanda, also expects the inflation rate of this period to be 2.8%.
He also mentioned the core inflation rate (Core CPI) and said that this index, in which food and energy costs are not taken into account, can remain high under the influence of rising prices in the housing market.
Antoni Trenchev, the founder of Nexo Group, also recently said in a comment that if the inflation rate (CPI) for the month of June in the United States is announced lower than expected in the coming days, Bitcoin could reach $35,000. to grow and otherwise, if the announced rate is higher than expected by experts, it may return below $30,000.
2. Producer price index
The producer price index measures price changes at the wholesale (production) level that consumers will typically face in the future. US PPI fell to 1.1% in May, which was lower than 2.2% in the previous month and 1.5% expected. Now the consensus of experts is that this rate for June will probably be announced at 0.4%.
3. Claims for unemployment insurance in the United States
On Thursday, statistics related to unemployment insurance claims in the United States for the week ending July 8 (July 17) will also be published. Recently released data paints a different picture of the US labor market. According to the statistics announced by the “ADP” research center, the private sector in the United States created nearly half a million new jobs in June, which is twice as many as expected by experts.
These strong and unexpected results support the continuation of contractionary monetary policies by the US central bank. A strong labor market means that the country’s economy is growing and usually leads to higher prices (inflation growth) in the future.
The slight increase in unemployment insurance claims from the previous period and the average non-farm payrolls in June somewhat contradicted the strong private sector employment results. Now, if we see an increase in claims related to unemployment insurance on Thursday, this opposition will become stronger.